Horace Dediu, Asymco - The Innovator's Stopwatch: When Timing is Everything

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Those who can tell the future of technology, we call Futurists. Those who can tell when a technology will reach the market? We call them Billionaires.

Timing is everything in life – and technology is no different. Entrepreneurs cite timing as the primary cause of success, above any other contribution. They also cite it as the primary cause of failure. Yet timing is the most mysterious variable in innovation theory. How can we predict when our time is right?

In this talk, Horace Dediu describes ‘the Innovator’s Stopwatch’ – establishing what to look out for when predicting the right time to take a new technology or product to market. He details the difference between diffusive and disruptive strategies, and sets out clear guidelines for determining the right customers to be talking to, given your value proposition.

The presentation is supported with data drawn from dozens of examples, across multiple technologies including the smartphone.


And to add a wider perspective an experienced panel featuring Russell Buckley of Kindred Capital and Azeem Azhar VP, Head of Venture and Foresight @ Schibsted Media Group explore further Horace’s insights. Both Russell and Azeem are themselves successful entrepreneurs; and commentators in this space.


• How to determine whether you are in a diffusive or disruptive cycle
• How to match the right customers to your opportunity
• How to schedule your resources for best chance of successful market entry


Horace Dediu is a Senior Fellow at the Clay Christensen Institute for Disruptive Innovation, where he devotes time to teaching and research on the impact of technology on the disruption of such sectors as banking, automotive and energy and the impact of disruption on technology sectors such as mobile, computing and wearables.

Named the “King of Apple Analysts” by Fortune/CNN, he appears frequently on Bloomberg TV and BNN. He is also a member of the Forum for Growth and Innovation at Harvard Business School.

Dediu is the author of The Critical Path, The First Year (2012). His 124 podcasts have 25,000 regular listeners, and his Asymco.com blog is widely cited. You can follow him on Twitter @asymco


Panelist Azeem Azhar is a strategist, inventor, product entrepreneur and writer. He is the Founder of Exponential View; a popular weekly curated newsletter about Technology and Society and VP, Head of Venture and Foresight at Schibsted Media Group. Previously, Azeem founded social influence startup PeerIndex which was sold to Brandwatch in 2014.


Panelist Russell Buckley is a Partner with Kindred Capital, an early stage venture investor, based in London and Chairman of Touch Surgery and Tapdaq. He is a previous Global Chairman of the Mobile Marketing Association and was an active Angel Investor in over 40 companies (via Ballpark Ventures). Russell’s previous role was with mobile advertising startup, AdMob. He learned about AdMob soon after its launch, joining as its first employee in 2006. His remit was to launch AdMob into the EMEA market and four years later, AdMob was sold to Google for $750m.


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